LOS ANGELES — Walker Buehler knows you have high expectations for him. They are nothing compared to what he expects of himself.
“I’m frustrated,” he said last week. “There are certain expectations that people are always going to have for you. Most of the time, that’s based on years past or how you’ve performed. And I think a lot of times the expectations for myself are drastically different.
“I’m mad at the results. I’m frustrated with the way I’m performing.”
Days after that conversation, the Dodgers right-hander was chased in the third inning of his start against the New York Mets. It was the shortest start of his career at 2⅓ innings and for the first time in his 105 big-league starts, Buehler has allowed four or more runs in consecutive starts.
“It’s very uncharacteristic as far as kind of the inconsistencies. We’ve come to expect the quality start every time he goes out there,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after Saturday’s loss. “But the game is hard. Those hitters are good on the other side. And when you’re not right, they make you pay. When you can’t get ahead, can’t put guys out, and make mistakes, it’s gonna get exposed, regardless of who you are.
“He’s grinding. This is a tough stretch for him. I think if you look at any starting pitcher, it would certainly be acceptable. But for Walker’s expectations and how he’s getting there, how he’s getting through games – not acceptable.”
The surface numbers do not flash in neon. Buehler has managed to go 6-2 with a 3.84 ERA and a 108 ERA-plus (slightly better than average) through his first 11 starts. He threw the first complete game shutout in baseball this season.
“The way that I’m going to look at that is not always about the scoreboard,” Buehler said. “I’m kind of always measuring myself in terms of, ‘Could I win a playoff game today?’ There’s maybe been one or two times this year when I could have won a playoff game. That’s just not enough. I think that quality start metric thing, as antiquated as it is, is a nice barometer for performing the way a major-league front-line starter should perform almost every time they throw. And I’m, what, 2 for 10 now in that area? That’s just not good enough.
“I think a lot of these new-age metrics on performance can cut through all the (nonsense). And I’m just not performing the way I want to even when the team has won me six games.”
For most of this season, those more advanced metrics have pointed an accusatory finger at Buehler’s fastball.
Opposing batters have feasted on it, batting .386 with five of the seven home runs Buehler has allowed on the four-seamer and .462 off the two-seamer that he uses much less frequently. The spin rates on both have dropped significantly from his career standard.
“He’s just not getting the same swing-and-miss and having the same effect it has had in years past,” Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior said. “I think some of that is just the command. The command hasn’t been there with his fastball. Early on in his career, he made a living just pounding his fastball down and away to both sides of the plate. I think once you can do that, hitters have to respect that and that’s when he was able to pitch off of that with his other pitches – his slider or because their eyes are looking out a little bit more he was able to elevate and get more swing and miss.
“But to this point, it’s been leaking up in the zone a little more than usual. That’s something he’s been trying to fine-tune all year. … I think once he has that fastball I think that’s when the slider comes back in and has a little more play to it.”
Buehler’s fastball was back in Saturday’s abbreviated start. He struck out three of the first four batters, blowing a 97-mph four-seamer past Starling Marte at one point. But his slider was hit for an RBI double by Marte in his next at-bat and a two-run home run by Pete Alonso.
“Starling Marte’s been in this league a long time and Pete is having a special season and has hit me well in the past,” Buehler said, explaining that he didn’t think the pitches in question were bad pitches. “None of that really matters in the mental calculation for me. I want to be good. I want to help the team win. I’ve done that in the past and I want to get back to that.”
He might have to deal with the forces of evolution to make that happen.
As a rookie in 2018, Buehler threw his fastball 60% of the time, mixing in a curveball and slider equally. This year, he is throwing 39% fastballs with a cut fastball (24%) much more prominent and his changeup more critical. Earlier this year, he referred to them as “kind of peanut butter and jelly,” combining to give him more pitch efficiency in the past couple of years.
Buehler points to his frame – he is listed at 6-foot-2, 185 pounds – as partly necessitating the changes in his arsenal.
“I said it the other night and I didn’t really like that I said it because it shouldn’t be a factor – but my frame makes it a little difficult or a little more high effort to get the same results and I’ve kind of structured my delivery to use everything that I have physically,” he said. “Now maybe it’s time to restructure that a little bit to how my 27-, 28-year-old body is now as opposed to when I was 22 and could kind of pick my arm up and throw it.”
But Prior sees other forces at work.
“Last year, he really found a way to throw his changeup. He really found a way to throw his two-seamer. By doing that, he was being an athlete,” Prior said. “He really learned how to get inside the baseball and make that movement go to the right side. With that, it came probably with a cost to some other things and some arm-angle changes to some of those other pitches.”
Buehler grudgingly acknowledges there is truth to Prior’s assessment.
“Yep,” he said. “I think maybe I tricked myself into not buying into that because for years I’ve thrown five different sliders a year and that’s an east-to-west pitch. And I’ve thrown the same cutter for two or three years now. I still throw the two-seamer and a little more changeup and things like that.
“But at the end of the day, those are decisions I’ve made to try and help me in my career. Yeah, there’s going to be some tradeoff here and there. But if I can’t handle the tradeoff, that’s on me. That’s kind of the frustrating part. I’ve decided to make tradeoffs and what I thought was always etched in stone in terms of what I can do is not always there, right? So I don’t think it’s necessarily a scale-back moment or anything like that. I just think I have to get back to competing a little bit more and worrying a little bit less about the feel of things. Just command it and go win games.
“There’s going to be some sort of switch or something that’s going to have to happen to turn this thing around a little bit.”
Prior has no doubt that Buehler will find the path back to being the dominant pitcher everyone expects him to be.
“It’s there,” Prior said. “Sometimes it’s not always a linear path to get there. But he’ll be there by when we need him most.”
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