We’ve been through this before.
Remember 2007? UCLA and USC both reached the men’s basketball Sweet 16, and both seemed on the cusp of even more. The Trojans were roughed up that year by North Carolina in a regional semifinal at East Rutherford, N.J., when I’d noted in print that they should have been reminded of Pat Riley’s “no rebounds, no rings” motto. The Bruins subdued Pittsburgh – then-Coach Ben Howland’s former team – and edged Kansas in San Jose that weekend to make it into the second of Howland’s three consecutive Final Fours.
And both programs were about to welcome highly-touted recruits, albeit of the one-and-done variety: Kevin Love to UCLA and O.J. Mayo to USC. So, writing a column on the plane back from Jersey, I noted that the idea of UCLA and USC possibly turning the Final Four into a neighborhood brawl someday, and maybe someday soon, was intriguing.
“(The) idea that those dreams were alive for this long says something about L.A.’s two programs and their relevance nationally,” I wrote. “It says their level of play has seldom been better, and that this rivalry is poised to grab coast-to-coast attention over the next few years.”
We’re still waiting for someday. The crystal ball isn’t always spot-on, as I’m sure regular readers of This Space know by now.
Howland’s Bruins did get to the game’s biggest stage three years running, losing to Florida in the national championship game in ’06 and to Florida and Memphis in the national semifinals the next two years. But the demanding and sometimes fussy coach ultimately wore out his welcome and was fired in 2011 after a conference title but a first-round NCAA Tournament exit. The Steve Alford era in Westwood is best forgotten, and Mick Cronin appears to have this historic program back on track … at least for now.
As for USC? The Trojans went out in the first round in Mayo’s only season. The circumstances of his recruitment subsequently became the focus of NCAA enforcement actions, with USC self-imposing a one-year postseason ban in 2009-10 and accepting the vacating of all 21 victories during Mayo’s lone season. Tim Floyd left for UTEP ahead of the posse in 2009. Kevin O’Neill inherited the remains and reached the tournament once – a loss in the 2011 First Four – before he was fired in the middle of the 2012-13 season. And it took Andy Enfield seven seasons, three tournament appearances and one inspired assistant coaching hire to get USC back to the Sweet 16.
What’s next? Well, do you really trust that crystal ball?
For USC, it’s become easy to forget that there’s still an NCAA enforcement cloud above the program, as is the case for Kansas, LSU, Arizona and others identified in the FBI’s 2017 investigation of corruption in recruiting. Enfield’s associate head coach, Tony Bland, was among the first assistant coaches implicated and was sentenced to two years probation and 100 hours of community service in June, 2019 for accepting a $4,100 bribe to direct USC players to a specific sports management company when they turned pro. USC received an official “notice of allegations” in December of 2019.
Even if you look past that – and who knows when, or if, the NCAA will act in any of those cases – about the only thing you can reasonably predict about the Trojans’ 2021-22 roster is that definitely Evan and most likely Isaiah Mobley will be in the NBA instead. Graduate transfer guard Tahj Eaddy, who could accept another year of eligibility through the NCAA’s “Super Senior” waiver due to COVID, also might turn pro.
Then again, much of this year’s USC roster was augmented by transfers, so a lightning rebuild won’t be unusual. And 6-foot-11 Joshua Morgan, who transferred from Long Beach State last summer after being named Big West Conference Defensive Player of the Year as a freshman, will have three years of eligibility remaining and an opportunity to step into one of those vacancies immediately.
The impression left by the end of the NCAA Tournament, especially the way the local teams bowed out, was that of UCLA as the gutty lil’ Bruins, with Cronin getting more out of the talent on hand than expected, and USC as the dripping-with-talent Trojans whose last impression, in the regional final against Gonzaga, was … um, not good.
UCLA might be searching for reinforcements as well, depending on who stays and who goes. Is Johnny Juzang thinking an extra year in school will better prepare him for the NBA, or is it time to cash in? And will injured big man Chris Smith also take advantage of the extra year of eligibility and return?
The transfer portal is the rare instance of the NCAA changing something with the athletes in mind, though it might have been intended more to make compliance officers’ lives easier. It has become college basketball’s shopping bazaar, and the verbalcommits.com list – unofficial but generally accurate – listed 1,207 players as of 4 p.m. Monday afternoon, 256 who had found new destinations and the rest still free agents. You can be sure coaches, including Cronin and Enfield, are already re-recruiting those who are available.
In other words, predicting what the rosters will look like three to five months from now is folly, never mind whether we’ll ever see this rivalry play out at a Final Four.
jalexander@scng.com
@Jim_Alexander on Twitter
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