ASK IRA: Are NBA analysts too full of themselves with half-empty Heat perspective?

Q: Ira, just listened to Bill Simmons and Justine Tremaine dissing the Heat as not being a contender. The lost P.J. Tucker and now the sky is falling? – Tennison.

A: I just went back and listened to what you referenced, and, as with any analysis, you certainly can approach from the half-empty perspective. Among their thoughts was how bad Kyle Lowry looked in the playoffs, how Victor Oladipo hasn’t been Victor Oladipo in a while, and how the rest of the East has been bolstered. All are reasonable . . . in a half-empty vacuum. Or, you could look at Kyle Lowry bouncing back to something closer to himself, Victor Oladipo being healthy at the start of a season for the first time in years, and how there remains enough youth in place for internal growth (Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Omer Yurtseven) to offset the loss of a 37-year-old power forward. Of course, this is what summer speculation is all about. But it has been rare when the Heat have allowed uncertainty to overcome potential. Yes, injury is always a concern. Yes, age is a factor. But it’s not as if being stuck in place is the same as falling off a cliff. The Heat still are far closer to potentially being very good than being very bad. Several things still have to happen for the Heat to re-emerge as contenders. But even more would have to go wrong for the Heat to fall to play-in level.

Q: Hello, Ira. I’m just thinking that Myles Turner makes $18 million and Duncan Robinson makes $16.9 million. Could a trade be worked out? – Rolando, Borrego Springs, Calif.

A: First, while Myles Turner certainly could be attractive to the Heat, I’m not sure the same would be the case with Duncan Robinson from a Pacers perspective. Plus, while the salaries are close enough for trade purposes under the cap, Myles’ contract expires after this season, while Duncan still has three additional years, at $58 million remaining. And that’s the rub with all Duncan trade permutations. It’s not only about taking on his money for this coming season, but also all the money due going forward. By contrast, one of the reasons that Indiana might be willing to part with Myles is a reluctance to offer such a chunk of salary going forward.

Q: Miami has a history of bringing the best defensively out of their players so why wouldn’t they with Donovan Mitchell? – H.G.

A: And they very well could. And, based on their track record, they very well will. But you could make the same argument with Tyler Herro, who is even younger than Donovan Mitchell, and therefore, perhaps still with more room to grow on that end. Still, based on the way opponents went at Tyler (albeit while injured) in the playoffs, there also could be concern that Tyler has reached his defensive ceiling in the Heat system.

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