ANAHEIM — Summer has arrived and the optimism of spring around the Angels is long gone.
They are 34-38, trailing the Houston Astros by 11 games in the American League West. Even with a third wild-card spot now available, the Angels have already slipped to the fringes of contention. They are five games out of the third wild-card spot, with three other teams between them and that spot.
According to FanGraphs, the Angels have a 14.7% chance to make the playoffs.
Their 24-13 start seems so long ago, with a 14-game losing streak amid a 10-25 stretch that has disappointed fans. Just about everything has gone wrong in the past 35 games, but some things have been more wrong than others.
In an effort to separate perception from reality, here’s a look at some of what your frustrated eyes have seen, along with the numbers to determine how accurate these ideas are.
The Angels’ offense is a bigger problem than the pitching
The Angels have scored 4.26 runs per game, which ranks 20th in the majors. They are hitting .238 (19th) with a .707 OPS (16th).
Meanwhile, the Angels have a 3.85 ERA (12th), which includes a rotation ERA of 3.71 (ninth). Their rotation has actually been better than three first-place teams: the St. Louis Cardinals (3.89), New York Mets (4.04) and Cleveland Guardians (4.13).
Evaluating the bullpen arms is more complicated because their overall performance has been better than their clutch performance. The 1.18 WHIP for their relievers is 10th best, but the relievers have a 1.66 WHIP (27th) in high-leverage spots.
That is how they’ve suffered 14 blown saves, which is tied for the second-most in the majors.
Of course, it’s all connected. Part of the bullpen’s problem is the offense hasn’t given them enough cushion. It’s easier to protect a three-run lead than a one-run lead.
Situational hitting has been a major issue for the offense
Again, the accuracy of this statement depends on the definition of “situational hitting.”
The Angels have actually produced a .798 OPS (5th) with runners in scoring position. That includes all runners in scoring position at all points in the game.
The Angels have driven in 55.9% (6th) of runners from third with less than two outs. They have had productive outs 28.2% of their opportunities (16th). That’s defined as an out that drives in a run or moves a runner up a base when it’s the first out.
All of that seems pretty good, but it starts to fall apart when you just look at high-leverage spots, when the game is on the line. In those at-bats, the Angels have a .664 OPS (24th).
The Angels strike out too much
Their 25.6% strikeout rate is the highest in the majors, so that seems like a pretty clear indication that strikeouts are a major problem.
What’s interesting is that the strikeout rate wasn’t much lower (24.4%) when they were 24-13. Also counterintuitive is the fact that the strikeout rate in high-leverage spots goes down to 20.7% (11th).
One of the narratives surrounding the Angels’ strikeouts is that their hitters aren’t disciplined, but the numbers don’t necessarily support that. The Angels swing at 29.3% of pitches out of the strike zone (4th). They have taken 23% of pitches in the heart of the strike zone (16th).
The problem isn’t necessarily the swing-take decisions, but what they’re doing with the pitches when they put them in play.
The bottom of the order has been a black hole
The Angels’ bottom four spots in the order have combined for a .549 OPS and a .296 slugging percentage, which are both the worst in the majors by a wide margin.
By contrast, the top five spots have an .820 OPS (2nd) and .476 slugging percentage (2nd).
The Angels have been unlucky
Statcast tracks the gap between a team’s actual production and the expected production, based on the quality of contact made by the hitters.
The Angels’ actual slugging percentage of .401 is 60 points worse than their expected slugging percentage, the eighth-largest negative gap in the majors.
Angels pitchers, however, have been on the other side of the spectrum. They’ve allowed a .381 slugging percentage, which is 66 points lower than the expecting slugging percentage they should have allowed. That’s the fifth-largest positive gap in the majors.
The Angels’ defense has been bad
The previous stat demonstrates that this idea isn’t true.
Although the Angels’ defense hasn’t been as good as it was to start the season, they’re still average or better, depending on the metric. They have 13 defensive runs saved (13th). According to Statcast’s Outs Above Average, they rank seventh, including 12th in the infield and eighth in the outfield.
One part of the Angels’ defense that draws a lot of attention is the way they shift. Earlier this season, they were the most effective team in the majors at shifting, according to Sports Info Solutions. Now, they rank ninth, having prevented 22 more hits than they’ve allowed by shifting.
The Angels have allowed a .201 batting average on ground balls when they’re in a shift, compared with .211 when they’re playing straight up. In high-leverage situations – a much smaller sample size – they allow a .271 average on ground balls when they’re shifted, and a .313 average on ground balls when they’re straight up.
UP NEXT
Angels (RHP Michael Lorenzen, 6-4, 4.15) vs. Mariners (RHP Chris Flexen, 2-8, 4.23), Friday, 6:38 p.m., Bally Sports West, 830 AM
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