About the only sure thing in the Eastern Conference finals is take the under.
This will not be about who can outscore who.
Instead, this well could be how low can you go?
Which, to a degree, makes sense, considering how Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo believes that the 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award won by Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart should be his.
It starts Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. at FTX Arena, continuing every other night until the Heat or Celtics secure the necessary four victories to advance to the NBA Finals against the winner of the Western Conference finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors.
The familiarity is ample, with the Heat having defeated the Celtics in six games in the 2020 Eastern Conference finals at the Disney World quarantine bubble amid the initial COVID breakout. This time the fans at 601 Biscayne Boulevard and TD Garden will be added into the equation, with the Heat to host Games 1 and 2, and then Games 5 and 7, if needed, by virtue of securing the regular-season No. 1 seed over the No. 2 Celtics.
The matchups will be both fluid and compelling.
Center: Of all the memorable moments in Heat-Celtics playoffs lore, Adebayo’s block of Jayson Tatum at the conclusion of Game 1 of the 2020 East finals might stand as most iconic. Adebayo’s agility in that series forced the Celtics to rethink their approach in the middle. This time around, Boston is loaded with options — and potential fouls — in the middle to throw at Adebayo, when considering Robert Williams, Grant Williams, Al Horford and Daniel Theis. Edge: Heat.
Power forward: P.J. Tucker’s hustle was relentless, with the Heat’s 37-year-old power forward then rewarded with six days off between the Heat closing out the Philadelphia 76ers and the start of this round. This time the Celtics will come with an outside-shooting threat of their own, be it Grant Williams of Horford. At this point, it is discount Tucker at your own risk. Edge: Even.
Small forward: Not sure there is a better matchup in the playoffs at this point than the Heat’s Jimmy Butler vs. Tatum. The reality, though, is that the Celtics can shift Smart onto the defensive assignment here because of the lack of the other significant offensive wing threats in the Heat starting lineup. At most other junctures, Tatum would get the nod here. But at this juncture, an argument could be made that Butler is playing as well as anyone in the postseason, with the possible exception of the Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic. Edge: Heat.
Shooting guard: This is where the Celtics might hold the swing vote among the starters. With all due respect to what the Heat’s Max Strus has accomplished since his insertion into the starting lineup in March, Boston’s Jaylen Brown is simply at another level. And it is the two-wing circumstance with Tatum and Brown that makes the Celtics unique. Strus will have to be at the top of his game, as he was at the close of the 76ers series, to keep this competitive. Edge: Celtics.
Point guard: A series like this is why the Heat added Kyle Lowry in the offseason, for a feistiness-vs.-feistiness battle against the Celtics’ Smart. And then Lowry’s left hamstring acted up three games into the first round. And then it acted up again against the 76ers. Now Smart figures to have room to roam against capable Heat fill-in starter Gabe Vincent, including stints against Butler. Edge: Celtics.
Bench: The Celtics have shored up their bench with the additions of Theis and Derrick White and the shot-making of Payton Pritchard. The depth would be further bolstered by Robert Williams getting back to speed. But, as in those 2020 East finals, this is where Tyler Herro has to make a stand. To win the series, the Heat probably will have to do it by committee, which could require ample contributions from the likes of Herro, Victor Oladipo, Dewayne Dedmon, Caleb Martin, and possibly even Duncan Robinson. Edge: Heat.
Coaches: There is ample respect both ways between coaches who trace their roots to Portland, Ore. The Heat’s Erik Spoelstra was a finalist for NBA Coach of the Year, while Boston’s Ime Udoka arguably was NBA coach of the second half of the season, named Eastern Conference coach of the month for February and March. Udoka’s growth has been impressive. But Spoelsrta has been here, done this and beaten Boston. Edge: Heat.
Intangibles: Lowry’s hamstring is a huge question mark, but so is the troublesome left knee of the Celtics’ Robert Williams, with both forced to miss time this postseason. The Celtics’ ultimate advantage in pushing past the Milwaukee Bucks was hosting Sunday’s Game 7 by virtue of their No. 2 East seed. As the No. 1 East seed, the Heat gets to host a potential Game 7 against the Celtics. Edge: Heat.
Prediction: The seeming one sure thing is that this will not be a short series. That said, as mentioned above, Game 7 will have a decided South Florida slant. Heat in 7.
Eastern Conference finals
Game 1: Tuesday, FTX Arena, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Game 2: Thursday, FTX Arena, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Game 3: Saturday, TD Garden, 8:30 p.m., ABC
Game 4: May 23, TD Garden, 8:30 p.m., ABC
Game 5*: May 25: FTX Arena, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Game 6*: May 27, TD Garden, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Game 7*: May 29: FTX Arena, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
* – If necessary.
(No local television in conference finals.)
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