Sorry, Gov. Gavin Newsom. Sorry, California Air Resources Board. Your mandates to force a zero-emission vehicle mandate on California by 2035 just were electrocuted by the sanctions on Russia. Especially affected was nickel production, 11% under the control of Moscow.
That might not seem like a lot, but as we saw with the sanctions on Russian oil – 10% of world production – that’s enough to raise prices sharply. Imagine if 10% of your local gas stations closed, with no replacements. It would take some time for the others to adjust.
Nickel prices already were rising, going from $20,537 per ton last Dec. 15, to $21,587 on Feb. 23, the day before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prices soared to $45,538 on March 7. Then they settled back to around $32,300 for all of April so far.
The rise from $20,537 to the latest, $32,300, thus is $10,713. Or 52 percent.
The real problem is we just don’t know what the future brings, for the war or the inflation caused by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve Board pumping so many trillions of dollars into the economy the past two years since the pandemic began. The Fed now is increasing interest rates, which likely will cause a recession – which could depress commodities prices.
Government people don’t understand how much these commodities price fluctuations discombobulate industry. I’ve been in the newspaper industry since 1975, and can assure you publishers and editors closely monitor newsprint and ink prices.
Of our current leaders – President Biden, Vice President Harris, Secretary of State Blinken and many others – none has had more than the most cursory involvement in private industry. They’re just government people.
Here are two other price rises since last Dec. 15, both critical to producing batteries. Lithium is up 105%.
And cobalt is up 17% since that date – but up an incredible 390% since Jan. 20, 2021, the day Joe Biden became president. That demonstrates the “Putin price hike,” as Jen Psaki likes to say, is not the only reason for the inflation we all are suffering. Almost all the cobalt price hike occurred before the war and the sanctions.
CARB announced that at its June 9 meeting it will discuss (and likely impose) regulations to “drive the sales of new battery-electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles to 100 percent by the 2035 model year.” That’s to support “Newsom’s Executive Order N-79-20.”
Just 13 years away. But currently, electric cars remain almost exclusively the wheels of rich people. Can you afford a Tesla?
According to Cars.com, here are the current cheapest electric vehicles. Nissan Leaf, starting price $28,425, EPA-estimated range: 149-226 miles. Mini Cooper SE Hardtop, $30,750, 114 miles. Chevy Bolt, $32,495, 247-259 miles. Mazda MX-30, $34,695, 100 miles.
These all are small cars. Their prices soon will increase because of the commodities inflation.
By comparison, here are the cheapest gas-powered cars: Chevrolet Spark LS, $15,695, range 297 miles. (The electric Spark no longer is sold, but had a range of 82 miles.) Mitsubishi Mirage ES, $16,990, 303 to 331 miles. Kia Rio LX, $17,275, 393 to 488 miles.
These also are small cars, but half the price. Basically, electric cars cost about twice as much as equivalent gas-powered cars, and have greater range. Plus, it’s a lot easier to pull into a gas station and fill up in 5 minutes than to wait much longer to charge at an electric station. And EV repairs are much greater.
Starting in 1990, CARB has tried to impose EV mandates that never get met, so they’re eased. By 2035, Newsom will no longer be governor. A future governor and CARB membership will ease the mandates.
The high-speed rail boondoggle will be completed before the 100% ZEV mandate is imposed.
John Seiler writes at: johnseiler.substack.com
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